The Impact of Political Transition on Myanmar’s Border Trade with Thailand, China, and India after 2021 Myanmar Military Coup: A Panel Analysis

Abstract

This study investigates Myanmar benefited from competitive advantages in the ASEAN Community through data collection and observation before and after the 2021 Myanmar Military Coup. In our study, it consists of the exchange of goods and services between Myanmar and its neighboring counties, Thailand, China and India through their shared borders often important for economically interdependent regions. The trade involves agricultural products, raw materials, and manufactured goods. Myanmar Military Coup in 2021 can impact especially on the trade because of the changes of customs policies, securities and diplomatic relations.  When the trade surplus, bringing economic benefits by generating foreign currency. In inverse situation, for trade deficit causes potentially economic imbalances. We can explore in this thesis how Myanmar border trade between these three countries has shifted post-coup, assessing whether the changes lead to the trade surplus or deficit by investigating and analyzing export and imports volumes, particularly using a Bayesian framework.