The Hidden Economy in Myanmar based on a MIMIC Model

Abstract

This study estimated the size of Myanmar’s hidden economy from 2000 to 2023 using the MIMIC model. It included indicators like GDP growth, employment, and currency circulation, with causes such as unemployment, GDP per capita, inflation, self-employment, tax burden, and political changes. This study filled an empirical gap in seeking to explore how the hidden economy changed under different political regimes. The results revealed that the hidden economy was smaller during semi-democratic periods compared to military coup regimes. Despite the limitations in this study, the findings still contribute to a knowledge on how political regime shifts affect the size of Myanmar’s hidden economy.