The Influence of China's Carbon Market on Green Total Factor Productivity: Spatial Spillovers and the Moderating Role of Green Technological Innovation

Abstract

This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of China's Carbon Emissions Trading System (CETS) and its impacts on Green Total Factor Productivity (GTFP) using provincial panel data from 2005 to 2020. Employing a quasi-experimental approach combining Difference-in-Differences (DID) and Spatial DID (SDID) methodologies to analyze seven pilot regions (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, Hubei, Chongqing, and Fujian). Key findings indicate: CETS significantly promotes regional GTFP growth; Green Technological Innovation (GTI) acts as a moderating variable that enhances CETS' positive effect; Spatial analysis reveals CETS generates local GTFP growth and positive spillovers to neighboring regions; Robustness checks confirm result reliability. This research provides empirical evidence for optimizing carbon trading policies and achieving green development, highlighting the synergy between technological innovation and market mechanisms.